| viXra.org > Social Science > 2411 |
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| viXra.org > Social Science > 2411 |
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[2] viXra:2411.0155 [pdf] submitted on 2024-11-25 15:49:53
Authors: Peng Wang, Peter Luh
Comments: 6 Pages.
In building emergency evacuation, the perception of hazard can stress the crowd, arouse their competitive behaviors, and trigger disorder and blocking as they pass through a narrow passage (e.g., narrow exit). This is a serious concern threatening evacuees’ survivability and egress efficiency. How to effectively manage risk of such undesired situations is a critical problem in evacuation planning. Based on advanced simulation, behavioral studies and psychological findings on crowd evacuation, this paper establishes a probabilistic graphical model for egress risk analysis, especially considering egress blocking effect on crowd movement. In this model, a hazard event (e.g., fires) is the cause of crowd escape. The undesired event of disorder and blocking is then characterized as an outcome of excessive stress on evacuees due to surrounding hazards, resulting in a drastic decrease of crowd movement in a probabilistic fashion. Several unknown parameters exist in this model, and they have clear psychological meanings, such as the social bond of evacuees, the stress level of crowd in a hazardous condition, etc. Based on this probabilistic graphical model, statistical inference can be implemented and the unknown parameters in the model can be estimated.
Category: Social Science
[1] viXra:2411.0094 [pdf] submitted on 2024-11-13 19:44:41
Authors: Gennady Shkliarevsky
Comments: 43 Pages.
The article offers reflections on several issues relevant to the war in Ukraine and its consequences. It will examine the interplay of processes, both global and local, that led to the emergence of the Maidan movement and shaped its agenda. The failure of the Maidan to realize this agenda created political vacuum that was filled by Ukrainian nationalists. The ascension of Ukrainian nationalists to power and their attempts to Ukrainianize Ukraine was a development that played a critical role in the eruption of the war. The strategy pursued in the Ukrainian war by the partnership between the Ukrainian nationalist government and its Western sponsors is another important issue to be addressed. This strategy has been singularly unsuccessful. The article will try to explain the reasons for its failure. The war in Ukraine is part of the global turmoil that engulfs the world today. The outcome of this war will undoubtedly have global effects. The article will discuss some consequences that the war has already produced and that are currently shaping the emerging world order.
Category: Social Science
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